There are only two weeks remaining in the NFL regular season ladies and gentleman and your Houston Texans currently claim sole possession of first place in the AFC South. This means they’re on the cusp of winning their third divisional title in their 13-year existence. A playoff berth of any kind will be a first for Houston since 2012. Needless to say, the Texans have plenty to play for in these last couple of weeks.
Houston currently sits at (7-7), a whole game ahead of the (6-8) Indianapolis Colts, who pose the only viable threat to all the aforementioned prosperity. Entering last week’s divisional showdown, both teams were (6-7) but because the Texans won, they now control their own destiny. The Colts as a result, need wins and some help from familiar friends to lock up a playoff spot.
If the Texans win at least once and the Colts lose once — or if the Texans win both or the Colts lose both — Houston will win the division and there will be no need to delve into the tiebreaker scenarios.
If things get more complicated and the Texans and Colts both finish 8-8, they will be tied in overall record, division record, conference record and record against common opponents — the first four tiebreakers, leaving only strength of victory to determine the victor.
Although there is such a small margin between the two teams in determining who takes the division, it is entirely possible for the Texans to wrap it up this Sunday. Here’s how:
The Texans can clinch the AFC South if one of the following happens:
- Houston beats Tennessee and Indianapolis loses to or ties Miami.
- Houston ties Tennessee and Indianapolis loses to Miami.
- Houston wins and then clinches the strength-of-victory tiebreaker over the Colts.
Remember the strength of victory tiebreaker that will be needed in case Houston and Indy both finish 8-8? The Texans can also wrap that up this weekend, but it doesn’t have anything to do with either of these teams.
The Texans can clinch the strength-of-victory tiebreaker if one of the following happens:
- The Bengals beat the Broncos and either the Saints beat the Jaguars, or the Jets beat the Patriots or if the Panthers beat the Falcons.
- The Saints, Jets and Panthers all win.
I know it’s been a tumultuous season for those of you invested in this team but a win this Sunday could make it all worth it and punch the Texans’ ticket to the big dance. Also, because they would be a division champ, their opening game will be right here in Houston, presumably against the Kansas City Chiefs. If the current seeding is an indication of how things will end up when the playoffs begin, I foresee the best case scenario being a reality for Houston’s chances of advancing deep into the postseason.
As I said before, in the wild card round they could potentially be matched up with the Chiefs. This would be a rematch of the season opener for both teams, which Kansas City won 27-20. Despite Bryan Hoyer’s struggles in this game, the Texans still had a shot of winning this game and I believe they would fare well in a playoff rematch. If Houston’s home field advantage can propel them to a victory this time around, they would then face off with the Cincinnati Bengals in the divisional round.
This would be another rematch of a meeting from earlier in the season. However in this case, the Texans won the initial matchup, meaning they would enter the sequel with confidence. Not to mention the fact that in this hypothetical, the Brown Nerf Crossbow will be quarterbacking for the Bengals, instead of the Red Ryder BB Gun. Yes, you AJ McCarron.
I know I’m way ahead of myself, especially when you consider the fact the Texans still aren’t 100% certain who will be starting at QB this Sunday but if Houston takes care of business this weekend, all this could become very real very soon.
