Two top 25 ranked teams will meet dreaming of a college football playoff spot. In the College Football Playoff (CFB) rankings, the Memphis Tigers are ranked No. 21 & the Cougars are No. 24. Whoever loses is likely pushed out of the rankings.
After being demolished by Navy 45-20, Memphis comes into TDECU stadium hoping to prove they deserve to be ranked. Houston hopes to show they’re a real threat, even against tough opponents, and deserve to be higher than 24th. Sounds like the perfect screenplay for football fans.
Memphis will have a chip on their shoulder after Navy snapped their 15 game win streak. Houston wants to continue their dominance in the AAC, especially while playing at home. There are 5 major matchups to look at between the 2 teams.
Houston’s Rushing Offense versus Memphis’s Rushing Defense
Houston is ranked 7th in the nation in rushing offense with 273 yards per game. Memphis allows 147.1 rushing yards per game. Junior QB Greg Ward Jr. thrives on designed run plays. That should continue but, with Memphis likely to stack the box, expect running back Kenneth Farrow to get more carries than Ward.
The threat of Memphis attacking the rushing offense shouldn’t deter the Cougars from sticking to their usual run-heavy game plan, but it won’t be a surprise to see Ward throw the ball a tad bit more to try to keep the defense honest.
Memphis’ rushing offense vs. Houston’s rushing defense
Memphis’ rushing offense has been a second thought throughout the year, while Houston has thrived in stopping the run all season. The Tigers are 39th in rushing offense with 194.6 yards per game and the Cougars’ 8th ranked rushing defense is only allowing 99.4 yards per game. Even though Memphis flourishes in the passing game, it will be beneficial for Houston to stuff the run early to force the Tigers to play one-dimensional.
Can Houston’s secondary stop Memphis’ passing offense?
Houston’s secondary has improved from a liability early in the year to a strength of the defense in recent games. Against Vanderbilt, the Cougar secondary 
locked down the receivers, allowing the front seven to force plenty of quarterback pressures, sacks and turnovers. If they can do the same against Memphis’ receiving core, it creates a huge advantage and allows the front seven time to place pressure on Memphis’ Junior Quarterback Paxton Lynch.
It’s hard feat to accomplish because Lynch is one of the more prolific quarterbacks in college football. He’s ranked 8th with 3014 passing yards. His 334.9 passing yards per game is 6th in the nation. Lynch has thrown 19 touchdowns with only two interceptions all year for a passer rating of 164.5 – 10th in the nation.
Can Houston Force Turnovers?
The key to Paxton Lynch’s success this season is that he is not giving turnovers. His two interceptions are incredible considering his over 300 passing attempts. The Cougars need to force turnovers. The front seven must force bad throws with heavy pressure in order to give themselves a chance at forcing interceptions. If they can do that, as well as possibly force fumbles, the Cougars should keep the game in their favor.
Who can control 3rd down conversions?
Memphis and Houston are ranked 7th & 8th respectively in third down conversions. They’re evenly matched on offensive third down sets. Memphis converts 49% & UH is at 48%. The same could be said on defense where Memphis allows an average of 36% of opponent conversion opportunities and Houston allows 34%. This game may truly come down to who wins third down battles and who forces punts.
This might come down to the last drive of the game. Football fans are definitely in for a treat Saturday.
