As we have seen recently with LeBron James, a great local story can make a great national story. In the end, however, many local stories remain just that.
Nonetheless, there are always local heroes to be found. And there will always be residents proud to brag about their homegrown stars or pro teams.
And that hometown fanaticism often comes into play in fantasy football when some owners draft players from their favorite teams. Although many people have moved to Houston from other cities & may have kept their hometown loyalties, the odds are good most leagues in the Bayou City will be stocked with serious Texans fans.
Certainly, not every fantasy owner is blinded by the light of their favorite team. Many are savvy enough to separate rooting interest from potential fantasy success. And many are cynical enough not to make mistakes, especially if their favorite team is going to be lousy. But chances are, you have seen owners (and we forgive you if you are one of these owners) commit these blunders:
Overdrafting
In one league I was part of in St. Louis back in 2011 where applause is often given when a Ram is selected, someone choose Sam Bradford in the third round. To give the owner some benefit of the doubt, this is a league where 2 QBs can be played every week, but all they got out of Bradford was a 10-game season & 6 TD passes. The same owner could have gotten Matthew Stafford, who threw for 5,038 yards & 41 touchdowns! Going local too early in that case was a disaster, and it could have been adverted just by realizing that a quarterback throwing to Calvin Johnson is better than throwing to a group enrolled in Wide Receivers Anonymous.
Regional Overscouting
Once upon a time, in keeping with my former Midwest ties, I was in a league with someone who was a big Kansas City fan. This owner had done plenty of homework heading into the draft…and almost all of his picks consisted of Chiefs & other AFC West players. This owner found his way to the cellar & eventually cited a serious relationship as the cause of his bad season. Yeah, a serious relationship with the AFC West!
Not Caring Enough
This happens in the latter stages of a draft when everyone is scrambling for players. There are potentially a lot of value picks out there, and it is very satisfying when you unearth a star. Nevertheless, some owners start to blow off the draft at this point. Instead of digging deep into scouting reports, they simply pick a guy from their favorite squad because they know who he is, as opposed to rolling the dice on a sleeper from some other team. And if their “known quantity” turns out to be terrible, they are playing pot luck on the waiver wire while the sleeper is helping another owner get victories.
If you are an owner who has gone down any of these rocky roads in the past, hopefully this will serve as a wakeup call. If you are an owner who preys on those who make these mistakes, this will be your guide to throw off your competition.
And we have a simple, no-nonsense rankings scale:
GOLD MEDAL PLAYERS – Fantasy superstars
SILVER MEDAL PLAYERS – Dependable weekly starters
BRONZE MEDAL PLAYERS – Players who will be at the lower end of the starter scale. This includes wide receivers likely to be classified as WR3s, running backs who fall under the umbrella of flex players, and quarterbacks who are worthy starters in two-quarterback leagues but are borderline starters/matchup plays in many formats.
HONORABLE MENTION – This category is for players who are worth having on your roster. Most often, these players will be quality backups for bye weeks or sleeper candidates who have the potential to be valuable. An example would be a backup running back capable of producing good numbers if the starter ahead of him was injured.
DISHONORABLE MENTION – Players you really don’t want on your team, but they’ll have an outside chance of making waves & might be worth picking up if the circumstances are right.
SLIME IN THE ICE MACHINE – The value of these players is so cold you’ll think they’ve been living in an ice machine. Since they won’t help your team win a title, they have a heavy aura of slime. Stay away from slime in the ice machine!
How do the Houston players stack up as we approach training camp? Keep reading…we are just getting warmed up…
GOLD MEDAL PLAYERS
Move along, there is nothing to see here.
SILVER MEDAL PLAYERS
RB Arian Foster – While Foster is a risky pick, he’s the only player on the Texans who makes sense to take in the first 3 rounds of a draft. If he’s healthy and proves to be a good fit in new head coach Bill O’Brien’s system, he will get lots of touches as the Texans will try to rely on their defense & use their quarterback as a game manager. I am not sure I would use a first-round pick on Foster given his recent history. A second-round pick is more realistic. If Arian is out there in the third round, you might be committing robbery.
BRONZE MEDAL PLAYERS
WR Andre Johnson – I hate putting Andre here. After all, he’s been a reliable fantasy player for years & caught 109 passes for 1,407 yards & 5 TDs in 2013 despite all the turmoil at quarterback. However, speaking of turmoil, that seems to be Andre’s middle name these days. He’s unhappy & his absence from the offseason program will cause him to be behind with learning the new system when he returns…if he returns. In short, there is downside with Andre that has not existed in years. I would be happy to let another owner overdraft him at this point.
HONORABLE MENTION
RB Andre Brown – Before LeBron James returned to Cleveland, former Texans running back Ben Tate was arguably the most notable free agent to land in Northeast Ohio this year. Brown, a former starter with the New York Giants, will now be Foster’s caddy. Admittedly, owners need to be leery about Foster’s injury issues & wear & tear, but Brown is not exactly the most durable guy around either. As long as he ends up at #2 on the depth chart, he will get drafted in most leagues. He is not worth targeting too early, unless you can scare the Foster owner in your league to pull the trigger sooner rather than later.
WR DeAndre Hopkins – While the general consensus has Andre Johnson suiting up for Houston in 2014, what happens if he is traded away or sits out? Hopkins becomes the number one receiver by default, making him an intriguing pick at the right price. Of course, a number one receiver for the Texas might not have as much value as the #3 receiver on the Broncos, but it’s something. For now, DeAndre is merely a somewhat promising player who suffered through rookie inconsistency. He’s talented enough to be touted as a sleeper. Ideally, he would be a reserve and spot starter on your roster if Andre’s around.
TE Garrett Graham – Graham made a nice impression last year, tying for the team lead in touchdown receptions. His top performance took place in week 11, when he caught 7 passes for 136 yards & a TD as the Texans suffered an embarrassing loss to Oakland. O’Brien will likely run a lot of 2 tight end formations, which caps Graham’s upside as Ryan Griffin & rookie C.J. Fiederowicz will be in the mix. Oh, and the shaky situation at quarterback is a big problem to boot. If there is an owner you know who lacks brilliance & remembers Graham was a nice contributor in 2013, make arrangements to act as Graham’s PR agent when speaking to that owner.
Texans Team Defense – With the proliferation of offense in today’s NFL, there are very few defenses you can start every week in fantasy & be comfortable with them in your lineup. Many owners rotate defenses off the waiver wire based on matchups. If Jadeveon Clowney is the real deal, the Texans defense has a nice chance at earning a medal as the season goes on. And if he’s merely decent, there will still be times to start the Texans, especially when they are playing division rivals Jacksonville & Tennessee.
DISHONORABLE MENTION
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick – During his rocky tenure as Buffalo’s starter & last year in Tennessee, when he took over for an injured Jake Locker, Fitzpatrick often kept teams in games & then threw a costly interception when it mattered most. I can remember one game in particular from 2012 when the Bills were playing the Patriots on the road where Fitzpatrick completed 27-out-of-40 passes for 337 yards & 2 TDs. Buffalo lost 37-31, as Fitzpatrick tossed an interception to Devin McCourty with less than 2 minutes to play & a stunning upset in sight. So there will be times in 2014 where Fitzpatrick could help owners as a spot starter, especially if O’Brien manages to get the most out of him. Ultimately, Fitzpatrick is a helter-skelter player who will not have unlimited job security on a run-first offense. You can do better for a QB2. Just keep that a secret from anyone who thinks Fitz is going to shock the world.
SLIME IN THE ICE MACHINE
QB Tom Savage – We may see if Savage’s strong arm is more bark or bite before the season is over. With O’Brien in charge, Savage may have a shot at progressing faster than most, but he is still a rookie who did not play much in college at Pittsburgh. It would be hard to see Savage making a big splash. Still, if you know someone who is convinced Savage is the next Dan Marino, the last great signal caller out of Pitt, prod them into wasting a late-round pick on him.
QB Case Keenum – I understand the love for Keenum in the Bayou City. I wanted him to do well last year too. And then he kept regressing week after week. Despite his struggles, there are some in Houston who believe Keenum should be the quarterback on opening day. Some will also have you believe that Keenum finally brought peace to the Middle East, solved global warming, and was solely responsible for Wingstop bringing back their Mango Habanero wings. It is not inconceivable Keenum would see playing time this year, especially if Fitzpatrick goes down early & the powers that be would rather give Savage more seasoning before throwing him into the fire. Regardless, banking on Keenum becoming a smashing success for your fantasy squad is not wise.
RB Alfred Blue – Just a few years ago in our nation’s capital, another sixth-round pick with a first name of Alfred took the fantasy world by storm & helped lead the Redskins to the NFC East title. The Texans would be thrilled if Alfred Blue turned out to be their version of Alfred Morris. If Blue ends up third on the depth chart (which is not guaranteed with Dennis Johnson & Jonathan Grimes still around) he will merit monitoring on the waiver wire due to the injury histories of Brown & Foster.
WR DeVier Posey – In fairness to Posey, it often takes players awhile to recover from severe Achilles injuries, so we may see better things from him this year. And he would likely get an uptick in opportunities if Andre is not around. However, at the moment, he’s a backup receiver on a shaky offense. He’s currently undraftable, unless you know someone in your league that used to be a big fan of former Rocket James Posey & can fabricate a funny story that the 2 are related.
WR Keshawn Martin – There are some leagues out there where return yardage is factored into the scoring, and that’s pretty much the only way Martin registers in the box score. People like Daryl Morey, who disdain the box score, will look for other metrics to see if Martin would help a depleted Rockets bench, but he does not belong on your bench unless you are desperate for a return specialist.
TE Ryan Griffin – Griffin did not embarrass himself when he saw playing time down the stretch last season. Even if he’s behind Graham on the official depth chart, the scheme may get him a decent amount of playing time. It would take a lot of twists & turns to make Griffin relevant.
TE C.J. Fiederowicz – Many leagues use draft kits with printed labels that have player names on them. They do not contain every player. When someone without a label is taken, their name is written on a blank label. It would be hilarious to see someone take C.J. & then have to spell his name out! C.J. will need a strong preseason to have any shot at getting on the fantasy radar.
K Randy Bullock – In many ways, Bullock is still lucky to have a job after his horrible start last year. He righted the ship after missing 3 FGs in a week 9 loss to Indianapolis. He’s not guaranteed a spot this time around as the Texans also have Rice rookie Chris Boswell on the squad. Team situations influence the stock of kickers more than any other position, and neither Bullock nor Boswell needs to be coveted on draft day, unless you can convince a dimwitted rival to take the plunge.
-Fantasy Football Writer & HST Contributor Andy Rioux
